Brazil, Brazil, Brazil…. There are a few nations that dominate the pre-group press in each World Cup. Every four years we hear our fill of Brazil, Germany, Italy, England (except when they embarrassingly failed to qualify in 1994 of course) and Argentina.

Okay, so Brazil has been in the finals in each of the past three World Cups and has won the coveted trophy five times, twice more than any other nation. Alright, so Germany are the host nation, have three titles of their own and have qualified for all but two ever held. You say Italy do them one better having bullied their way into all but one World Cup finals with the same tally of three titles? Alright already, I see your point. Only seven nations have won the World Cup in its history. It’s an exclusive club, and I see why we spend so much time talking about its members. I’m just as impressed with them as the rest of you. But let’s forget about Brazil for a second and think about this. Italy is 14th in the FIFA world rankings. Germany are 19th and are in the midst of considerable controversy under heir Klinsman. England 10th, have only even made it to the final match once, winning their solitary title in 1966 and are now sans savior Wayne Rooney in all likelihood. These are teams we are talking about as legitimate contenders in this year’s finals?

Why is no one speaking loudly of the Netherlands, Spain or France as truly formidable, despite their respective FIFA rankings of 3, 5 and seven? The legendary van Basten’s Netherlands are led by a core of world class players the likes of van Nistelrooy, Arjen Robben, Phillip Cocu and the stalwart goalkeeping of van der Sar. They were certainly impressive in qualifying as well, with 10 wins and 2 draws, including 2-0 defeat of the Czech Republic. Speaking of the Czech Republic, why is it that football pundits the world over seem to tout their significant attacking prowess and their enviable rank of second in the world, yet such talk fades when the subject goes beyond the end of the group stages? King Koller is certainly accustomed to scoring goals on German soil, considering he does it all the time for Borussia Dortmund. Dare I ask why no one gives either of the major CONCACAF nations a chance, despite the United States and Mexico both receiving spots in the top five?

Is this because the FIFA world rankings are about as useful as sunglasses in Seattle? Well, yes! I don’t think anyone will really disagree with me that the FIFA ranking system is…ahem…slightly flawed. Confidence in the ranking system, or more accurately a lack thereof, to a certain extent explains the fact that these teams are heavyweights in world football on paper, yet are not given much of a chance to be in true contention. But is this justified? Should we really treat these nations that are occupying coveted spots atop the table of international football as bumps in the Autobahn to glory, for the more storied sides? If history is to be our judge, absolutely! With the exception of a few dots on the landscape and the aberration of France winning at home in 1998; Brazil, Germany, Argentina and Italy have not only won the majority of past World Cup competitions, they have occupied both spots in the final match almost 70 percent of the time.

So does that mean that there are no Cinderella stories in the making for this World Cup? Should we all just buy Brazil t-shirts and samba all summer? On the contrary. Senegal and South Korea in 2002, Croatia in 1998, Bulgaria in 1994; World Cup lore is as full of the unlikely as it is the expected, at least up until the semis anyway. Besides, it is the colors of every nation and what happens along the way that makes this competition so special throughout the world. A lot can happen in the group stages to send an unexpected party crasher into the second round. So who is your pick to shock the world in Germany this summer? Hardly World Cup newcomers, but I say watch out for Sweden. More on that later, you tell me yours and I’ll tell you mine.