Special from Soccer365: Martin North's comprehensive EURO2008 forecast.
by Martin North
Patriotic bias will cloud the thoughts of many; from Moscow to Madrid, arguments will be made for each nation’s superiority.
As an Englishman I have no such problem this year. Steve McClaren’s bungling put paid to my dreams of another glorious failure. Probably for the best really; the inevitable shoot-out heartache would surely flood the Alpine valleys with John Terry’s tears.
At least English supporters don’t have the ultimate indignity of watching the Tartan Army party their way through Austria and Switzerland, though they came mighty close. Now we join the Scots in the ignominious club of European spectators. How do perennially deprived souls like the Finns and Cypriots cope with the emptiness every other summer?
They could learn from American sports fans and practice the art of “bracketology.” Whether for honor or cold, hard cash, few football supporters are immune from imagining themselves to be a sporting Nostradamus. For some, the prospect of profit might be the only reason to endure the depression of their own team’s absence.
So, how best to forecast the results, and possibly make a pretty penny at the same time?
Location, location, location. There’s nothing like playing in your own backyard. Home support, familiarity with climate and infrastructure can give teams a real boost. On only three occasions has the home country, or countries bordering the home nation, failed to reach the final. Since 1980, the only host not to reach at least the semis was the Belgians in 2000.
Austria and Switzerland will need any advantage they can get if they’re to reach the latter stages. Languishing 101st in the FIFA rankings, first-timers Austria are the tournament’s rank outsiders at 100/1.
The Swiss are a better bet to reach the knockout rounds, but they have yet to win a group game in their two finals appearances. Progress from a group containing Portugal and the Czech Republic would be a giant leap forward.
If the Nati require inspiration they should dust off some video of the 1992 tournament, when the unheralded Danes took the short hop, skip and jump to Sweden and stunned Europe. That they triumphed over reigning World Champions Germany in the final was surprising enough. That they won without Denmark’s greatest ever player, Michael Laudrup, was a remarkable achievement.
Apart from that success, Northern European performance in European Championships has been woeful. No other Scandinavian or British sides have ever reached the final, so think twice before backing the 33/1 Swedes.
Rather more successful has been Germany. The three time winners have a squad that mixes experienced veterans with exciting youngsters, and they have the added bonus of being close to home. If you choose history as your guide, German pedigree is unmatched; the 4/1 favorites have reached the final in 55% of the tournaments they’ve entered.
Past performance shouldn’t be your only resource, as the last tournament shows. Greece had only reached the 1st round once, yet they won in 2004 with a sturdy if not spectacular team. If you feel like backing another novice, why not have a pop on Poland, the only other nation along with Austria to have never featured at the finals before. The Poles also won their group above Portugal, so they’re worth a gamble at a generous 40/1.
You could argue that the Portuguese are overdue having reached at least the Semis three times and never taken home the silverware. With Europe’s best player Cristiano Ronaldo, and a team still smarting from their failure against Greece four years ago, Phil Scolari’s men have a good chance of finally breaking their duck.
Despite their recent success, Italy hasn’t won the Euros since 1968. But, on form, they look well placed to add to their solitary triumph. The current World champions are the World’s best European team according to Fifa, behind only Argentina and Brazil. Unfortunately for the Azzurri, it’s a hard task to win two major tournaments in a row; reigning World Champs have only won the subsequent Euros once, when France beat the Italians in 2000. The loss of Fabio Cannavaro, with torn ankle ligaments, makes the task of going back to back even harder.
Meanwhile, Euro Champs Greece have moved up to a record 8th in FIFA rankings after beating Portugal in March. Their rise under Otto Rehhagel has been astounding and, despite not reaching the last World Cup, they won their Euro 2008 qualification group with ease over arch-rivals Turkey. No country has ever won successive titles but only a fool would rule out the possibility of lightning striking twice.
The Germans were the strongest team in qualification, scoring 35 goals and conceding only seven. As impressive as this tally is, it did benefit from some merciless minnow-bashing – Germany’s 13-0 thrashing of San Marino dramatically boosted their qualification goal difference. The win featured seven different German scorers with Lukas Podolski notching four.
Goals will be harder to come by in Austria and Switzerland. Over the last four tournaments, the European Championships have yielded 2.35 goals per game while World Cups over the same period have seen 2.55 goals per game.
The Euros also tend to be more competitive with games separated by fewer goals than at the World Cup. At Euro 2004 the average margin of victory in group play was 1.17 goals, while in the knock-out rounds it was down to a measly goal per game. Comparatively, the 2006 World Cup had average margins of 1.48 during the group stage, and 1.17 at the business end.
With no Japans or Costa Ricas to take to the cleaners, European teams must rely on the odd moment of inspiration from their forwards. Angelos Charisteas scored three priceless goals, including two gamewinners, for Greece in 2004. At this level, only one goal can separate even the most redoubtable adversaries.
Portuguese hopes lie with Cristiano Ronaldo. After walking the European Golden Shoe contest this season, the Manchester United winger would dearly love to add the Euro Golden Boot to his rapidly expanding trophy cabinet.
Portugal’s Iberian neighbors, Spain have one of the best teams on paper; an unparalleled spine of Casillas, Puyol, Fabregas and Torres is joined by a supporting cast that includes Sergio Ramos, Xavi, Iniesta and David Villa. Even with a wealth of attacking riches, La Furia Roja will have to focus defensively if they want to relinquish the tag of Europe’s bridesmaids.
No footballing nation is on a high quite like Russia at the moment. As if ousting England from the summer’s festivities wasn’t enough, the Russian league is also on the rise with Zenit St. Petersburg deservedly winning this year’s UEFA Cup.
Zenit’s brightest star in Manchester was Russian captain Andrei Arshavin. The diminutive playmaker is suspended for Russia’s first two fixtures, but if they can make it to the quarters without him they would become an attractive option at 22/1.
If your team’s crafty no.10 can’t find the breakthrough, the agony of penalties awaits. The fate of England seems to have been ruled by shootouts over the last 20 years, but this summer there will be no English villain for the tabloids to lambaste.
England’s most recent spot-kick vanquishers, Portugal have the best shootout percentage of any European team at 80%. The Czech are second with 66.7% success and the ice-cool Germans are third on 60%.
Since Euro games are statistically more likely to reach penalties – 29% go the distance opposed to only 20% at the World Cup – it makes sense to steer clear of those counties that couldn’t hit a barn door with a banjo from 12 yards. Even worse than England (16.7%) is the Netherlands; the Dutch have won a pitiful 12.5% of their shootouts. When it comes to penalties, it seems the Oranje are too often yellowbellied.
Need something more to make your picks? Why not look to the most intense European competition of them all, the Eurovison Song Contest. The Welsh know a good tune when they hear one and anyone who’s heard their pre-match rendition of Hen Wlad Fy Nhadau (Land of My Fathers) can understand the inspirational power of a national anthem.
There are few anthems as rousing as the unapologetically nationalistic La Marseillaise – a hymn so stirring it’s no wonder Zinedine Zidane got a little too fired up at the last World Cup.
Adrian Mutu and his fellow Romanians will have no excuse for sluggishness after hearing their anthem, Deşteaptă-te, române! (Awaken thee, Romanian!). They will need to stay wide-awake to harbor any hope of surviving this year’s Group of Death along with France, Holland and Italy.
Should all else fail and even melodic subjectivity brings you no closer to your perfect picks, maybe we can turn to science. Surely it’s only a matter of time until some bright spark cracks the footballer’s genome and reveals which Romanian defender is molecularly predisposed to giving away a last-minute penalty.
Until then, predicting the plot of so fickle a sport would stump even the brainiest Ivy Leaguer. If you were, however, one of the visionaries who backed the 150-1 Greeks in 2004, then drop me a line and share your secret. Until then, here are my predictions:
Group A – Portugal to win. The Swiss keep home interest alive by reaching the knockout stage.
Group B – Germany cruise into the quarter-finals. Poland edges out Croatia for second.
Group C – France come through the Group of Death unscathed. Italy also makes it out alive.
Group D – The Spanish win the group. Russia finishes runner-up.
Quarter-final 1 - Cristiano Ronaldo leads Portugal over Poland.
Quarter-final 2 - Germany end Swiss dreams and progress.
Quarter-final 3 - Russia stuns Europe by beating France.
Quarter-final 4 - The match of the round. Spain topples Italy.
Semi-final 1 - Portuguese flair falls to German steel.
Semi-final 2 - Spain takes care of business against the Russians.
Final – Spanish flags fly high in Vienna – Iker Casillas hoists the Henri Delaunay Trophy.
Top Scorer – Fernando Torres powers Spain to the Championship and takes home the Golden Boot.
Breakout star – If given a chance, Karim Benzema should shine for France. Reminiscent of a young Ronaldo, the Lyon striker is blessed with speed, power and explosive shooting.
Martin North can be reached at martinjnorth@gmail.com.
